Craps strategies compared honestly: Molly, Iron Cross, don't, place 6 & 8

Every craps strategy is just a choice of which bets to make and how much to put on them. None of them changes the dice. Here are the six you'll hear about most, with real dollar amounts, the edge you actually pay, and how each one feels to play.

What a strategy can and can't do

A strategy in craps picks bets. It cannot make a bad bet good or make the 7 show up less often. It can decide how much of your money sits on cheap bets versus expensive ones, how much is exposed at once, and how bumpy the ride is. So the honest way to compare strategies is on three things: the blended house edge on the money you have out, the amount at risk per hand, and the variance, which is the size of the swings you'll feel. Every edge below is the standard per-bet-resolved figure at 3-4-5x odds.

3-Point Molly

How it's played. Bet $10 on the pass line. When a point is set, take full odds behind it. Then put $10 in the come. When that come bet travels to a number, take full odds on it too and put another $10 in the come. Stop at three numbers working (the point plus two come points). When one hits, replace it with a fresh come bet.

Money at risk. With $10 flat bets and full 3-4-5x odds, each number carries $10 plus $30 to $50 in odds. Three numbers working can mean $120 to $180 on the layout at once.

Edge. The flat bets pay 1.41%; the odds pay 0%. Blended across the whole stack at full 3-4-5x odds it's about 0.37%, the lowest of any right-side approach.

Variance. High. Most of your money is in odds, so one hit pays big and a quick seven-out takes a lot.

Who it suits. Players with a bankroll that can absorb the swings and the patience to wait for the come bets to travel. Full walkthrough in come bets.

Don't pass with lay odds

How it's played. Bet $10 on the don't pass. When a point is set, lay odds against it. With 3-4-5x you can lay enough to win up to $60 on a $10 flat bet: lay $120 against a 4 or 10, $90 against a 5 or 9, or $72 against a 6 or 8. Many players lay less, such as $60 against a 6 or 8 to win $50. Some add a don't come the same way.

Money at risk. $10 flat plus up to $120 in lay odds, so as much as $130 per point at full odds.

Edge. 1.36% on the flat bet, 0% on the lay odds, about 0.27% blended. This is the cheapest complete strategy on the table.

Variance. Low once a point is set, because you're the favorite on every point. The pain comes on the comeout, where a 7 or 11 loses the flat bet outright 8 times in 36. You win small often and lose big rarely, which is the opposite rhythm from the pass side.

Who it suits. Players who care more about the number than the mood. At a live table you're cheering against the shooter, and that bothers some people more than they expect.

Place 6 and 8 only

How it's played. Skip the line. After a point is set, place the 6 for $6 and the 8 for $6. Each pays $7 when it hits, and you can take them down whenever you like.

Money at risk. $12, always. It never grows unless you press.

Edge. 1.52% on every dollar. There are no odds to dilute it, so it can't go lower.

Variance. Low. The 6 and 8 together have ten ways against the 7's six, so you expect to collect $7 more often than you lose $12. Long hands are steadily profitable; short ones cost $12.

Who it suits. Beginners, small bankrolls, and anyone who wants to be in the game without tracking odds. It's also the best way to add numbers to a line bet without paying more than 1.52% for them.

$32 across

How it's played. Place every number at once: $5 each on the 4, 5, 9, and 10, and $6 each on the 6 and 8. That's $32, and it's a one-tap quick bet on the free table. Any number but 7 pays you: $9 on the 4 or 10, $7 on the 5 or 9, $7 on the 6 or 8.

Money at risk. $32 on every point roll. A 7 takes all of it.

Edge. This is where it gets expensive. Weighted by dollars: $10 at 6.67% on the 4 and 10, $10 at 4.00% on the 5 and 9, $12 at 1.52% on the 6 and 8. The blend is about 3.9%, more than double the 6 and 8 alone. Buying the outside numbers doesn't help at $5, because the commission has a $1 minimum. It pays off in $20 units: $20 buys on the 4, 5, 9, and 10 plus $24 on the 6 and 8 ($128 across) blend to about 1.7%.

Variance. Medium. You get paid on 24 of 36 rolls, so it feels great during a hand, and then the 7 erases the whole $32.

Who it suits. Players who want action on every roll and accept paying for it. If your rail allows it, buy the outside numbers in $20 units instead.

Iron Cross

How it's played. Place the 5 for $5, the 6 for $6, and the 8 for $6, then put $5 in the field. Now every number except 7 pays something: a 5, 6, or 8 pays $7 on the place bet (and loses the $5 field), while a 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, or 12 pays the field. That's $22 out.

Money at risk. $22 per roll, and the field bet has to be replaced on every roll.

Edge. Weighted per bet resolved: $5 at 2.78%, $5 at 4.00%, $12 at 1.52%, about 2.4% blended. Measured per roll the field dominates, because it's the only piece that resolves every single throw, and the true cost per hour is higher than the blend suggests.

Variance. Feels like zero, because you win on 30 of 36 rolls. Then the 7 rolls and takes all $22 in one motion. Most of those “wins” are small: a field hit on the 4 pays $5 while $17 in place bets sits idle.

Who it suits. Players who like constant action and short sessions.

Hardways and props as “fun money”

How it's played. A dollar or two on the hardways or a yo, alongside a real strategy.

Money at risk. Whatever you throw in. Keep it to $1 to $5.

Edge. 9.09% on the hard 6 and 8, 11.11% on the hard 4 and 10, 11% to 16.67% on the one-roll props.

Variance. Very high, which is the point. A $1 hard 8 pays $9 and a $1 boxcars pays $30.

Who it suits. Anyone, as long as it's a small, fixed slice of the session. It stops being fun money when the props are collecting more than your line bets.

Side by side

The honest conclusion

Read the edge column top to bottom and you have the ranking. No strategy on this list, or any other, beats the house. The dice don't know which bets you made, and each one carries its own price. What a good strategy does is lose slowly: the don't with lay odds and the Molly turn $100 of action into about 30 cents of expected loss, while $32 across turns it into nearly $4 and the props into $15.

The rest is about matching the feel to your temperament and your rail. If you want the cheapest possible game, play the don't with full lay odds. If you want to root with the table, play pass with full odds and one or two come bets. If you want something simple that never puts more than $12 at risk, place the 6 and 8. And if you want to know how much bankroll each of these actually needs, that's the subject of bankroll management. Whatever you pick, run it for a few hundred rolls on play money first and watch the swings before a casino charges you for the lesson.